I am not sure what it could be but I would start with,
Did you change the drive oil in the fall? Was there any water mixed in with the oil?
Maybe scraping the barnacles knocked a linkage. Try forward and reverse on land with the engine off. See if you can spin the prop when in gear or out of gear both forward and reverse, obviously with engine off. Maybe the cables are frozen and only partially in gear in forward and not at all in reverse?
_________________ --2002 3880 Regal Flybridge | Twin Merc 8.1HO **Seven** --2003 AB 13 VST Console Inflatable | Tohatsu 40hp TLDI **Phish'n ski** --310 Mercury Inflatable | 1982 9.9 Johnson
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