Yes, part of what I'm saying is that due to the awful depreciation (I try not to think about it), the loan value on used boats, in theory, should be significantly lower and/or not as much need for the 15 year loan. Also, while credit is very tight compared to what it was a short time ago, it's not gone. I have no doubt that a well qualified buyer can still even get 15 years if they want it. Maybe not from the first bank they go to. I'll go out on a limb and say that if they aren't well qualified, they shouldn't be buying a boat and it's not doing the economy or the manufacturers any good in the long run to finance them - any more than it was a good idea to finance a $500K house for someone with a $60K annual household income. It shouldn't have ever gotten started, and I said so throughout.
I can see lots of people saying, "We can't afford the brand-new boat between the tight credit and the fact that it's going to cost a fortune to put gas in it and tow it, but if we buy a boat that's four years old, we can get the same model for $12-15K less, get easier financing and use some of the savings for gas." The logic may or may not be completely sound, but I can see people following that line.
As for the manufacturers, I think it'll be a mixed bag. The ones that haven't been doing well in recent years may not make it much longer in this environment; VIP just announced they're closing their doors. This is actually a time when I can see FW doing better than most, although I don't expect it to be easy for any of them. The current FW product line is able to fulfill demand with a very high quality product at almost every price point in the market. So if you'd like to have a 220 but your wallet (and your bank) say you need to stick with a 180 for now, you can get one for a reasonable price and still know you've got a very nice boat to play with. Maybe you need to stick with a 2 or 3 year old 180. Still a great boat, if you can find one well taken care of - which shouldn't be too hard. If you play at the 458 level, you know you're in one of the nicest boats made in that size. And whatever you want or can afford in between.
I'm not trying to sound like a FW commercial, I just think it bodes well when compared to, say, VIP, who had a reputation (at least) for building cheap boats cheaply (whether that's actually the case or not), and that was it - take it or leave it.
I could also be utterly, totally wrong, and I'll be the first to admit it if that's the case. I spend a lot more time thinking about boating and taking care of boats than paying for boats, as I find that to be a very depressing thing to think about  . Part of my view is based on my overall attitude, which is that while we're entering into tight times, I don't subscribe to the sky-is-falling doom-and-gloom that I hear from so many. It seems to me there are a lot of people who believe tomorrow may be the Last Day. I don't buy it, although I do keep my eyes peeled for good prices on ammunition  .
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, I'm not sure it matters. The majority of people can't afford a boat anyway; those who can and want one, probably can get financing. Financing isn't gone, it's just not handed out to anyone who asks for it anymore (shouldn't have been in the first place, which is the main reason we're in this position IMO).